The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to Advance
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$113.06
Liquidity
$2.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 61h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 42¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 61h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 61 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to Advance State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to Advance State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 30, 17:30 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 60.9h
- 04:35SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 61h.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.0pp at Jul 26, 21:00 UTC (to 39¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -5.0pp → 39¢
- Jul 27, 00:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 39¢
- Jul 26, 23:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 41¢
- Jul 26, 21:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 39¢
- Jul 26, 20:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 42¢
- Jul 26, 18:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 42¢
- Jul 26, 17:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 42¢
- Jul 26, 15:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 7¢-24.5
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: O/U 5.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 8¢-42.5
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: FC Flora O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 53¢+2.0
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: The New Saints FC 1st Half O/U 0.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 52¢+2.0
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: The New Saints FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 28¢-13.5
Spread: The New Saints FC (-1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 22¢-15.0
Spread: The New Saints FC (-2.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 48¢-4.0
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Both Teams to Score
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢+1.5
The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Both Teams to Score in First Half
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-13.0
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sports · Vol $710.6K
- 100¢+39.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Sports · Vol $696.0K
- 60¢+8.0
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $283.6K
- 42¢+2.0
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sports · Vol $261.2K
- 0¢-49.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $255.0K
- 81¢+30.0
Los Cabos Open: Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch
Sports · Vol $157.9K
Market Description
In the UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying tie between The New Saints FC and FC Flora, with the deciding leg scheduled for July 30 at 1:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "The New Saints FC" if The New Saints FC is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Europa Conference League. This market will resolve to "FC Flora" if FC Flora is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Europa Conference League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
uefa europaReason
UEFA Europa contexts (League / Conference) — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "The New Saints FC vs. FC Flora: Team to Advance"?
As of Tue, 28 Jul 2026 04:35:18 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 30, 2026 (2026-07-30T17:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.uefa.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.uefa.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$113.06 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $113.06. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.