SportsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?

Probability

1¢

1h

-50.5pp

24h

-50.0pp

24h Vol

$10.2K

Liquidity

$28.0K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
espncricinfo.com
Link
espncricinfo.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 6, 2026, 05:00May 8, 2026, 13:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T13-38Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 50pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -50.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 164.4h

    LOW
  • 13:38Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 13:38Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-50.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventIndian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the pre-match coin toss for the cricket match between Delhi Capitals and Kolkata Knight Riders scheduled for 2026-05-08 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to the official coin toss result (the team recorded as having won the toss) as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. If an official toss winner is recorded, the market will resolve based on that result even if the match is subsequently delayed, relocated, abandoned, or no ball is bowled. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open and resolve according to the toss result for the listed fixture when it is eventually played. If the fixture is permanently canceled, forfeited before any toss is conducted, or otherwise completed without an official toss winner being recorded, the market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 13:38:22 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -50.0pp in the last 24 hours, -50.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$10.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket