T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 80.5
Probability
28¢
1h
-3.5pp
24h
-22.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$99.99
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (48.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 16h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 48.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 16 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (48.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 14:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 16.3h
- 21:43SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 16h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-22.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming cricket match between Lucknow Super Giants and Chennai Super Kings, scheduled for May 15, 2026 in Indian Premier League, this market will resolve to "O 80.5" if the 1st innings batting side scores more than 80.5 runs in 6 overs. If the 1st innings batting side scores fewer than 80.5 runs in 6 overs, this market will resolve to "U 80.5". The result will be determined based on the official total scored by the 1st innings batting side at the conclusion of their innings, or at the completion of 6 overs, whichever occurs first. This total includes all runs scored off the bat, extras, and any penalty runs awarded during the relevant period of play. Any penalty runs awarded after the completion of the innings or after the completion of the stipulated 6 overs will not count toward settlement. If the 1st innings batting side is bowled out before completing 6 overs, and the scheduled number of overs has not been reduced below 6, the market will resolve based on the final official score recorded. If the scheduled number of overs for the innings is reduced below 6 for any reason and fewer than 6 overs are bowled, this market will resolve 50-50. DLS (Duckworth–Lewis–Stern), DRS decisions, over-rate penalties, forfeits, walkovers, or any other on-field rulings that result in an official completed innings total will be treated as ordinary outcomes for the purpose of determining the final score used for settlement. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned before the 1st innings is completed and no official total is recorded, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 80.5"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 21:43:56 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -22.0pp in the last 24 hours, -3.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $99.99. Spread between best bid and best ask: 48.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.