SportsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5

Probability

96¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$34.25

Liquidity

$191.10

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
96¢
May 13, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 20:20 UTC
updated 20:20:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T20-20Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 18h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $191 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 18 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 17.7h

    HIGH
  • 20:20Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 18h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 96¢.

updated 20:20:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 20:20:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming cricket match between Lucknow Super Giants and Chennai Super Kings, scheduled for May 15, 2026 in Indian Premier League, this market will resolve to "O 29.5" if the 2nd innings batting side scores more than 29.5 runs in 6 overs. If the 2nd innings batting side scores fewer than 29.5 runs in 6 overs, this market will resolve to "U 29.5". The result will be determined based on the official total scored by the 2nd innings batting side at the conclusion of their innings, or at the completion of 6 overs, whichever occurs first. This total includes all runs scored off the bat, extras, and any penalty runs awarded during the relevant period of play. Any penalty runs awarded after the completion of the innings or after the completion of the stipulated 6 overs will not count toward settlement. If the 2nd innings batting side reaches its target before completing 6 overs, and the scheduled number of overs has not been reduced below 6, the market will resolve based on the official total at the time the winning run is scored. If the 2nd innings batting side is bowled out before completing 6 overs, and the scheduled number of overs has not been reduced below 6, the market will resolve based on the final official score recorded. If the scheduled number of overs for the innings is reduced below 6 for any reason and fewer than 6 overs are bowled, this market will resolve 50-50. DLS (Duckworth–Lewis–Stern), DRS decisions, over-rate penalties, forfeits, walkovers, or any other on-field rulings that result in an official completed innings total will be treated as ordinary outcomes for the purpose of determining the final score used for settlement. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned before the 2nd innings is completed and no official total is recorded, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:20:49 GMT, YES is priced at 96% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$34.25 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.25. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $191.10. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

3 wallets