SportsExpires May 21, 2026
Creator

Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians

Probability

48¢

1h

+10.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$500.6K

Liquidity

$146.5K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
54¢
May 12, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 16:09 UTC
updated 16:19:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T16-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 48¢; +10.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.4× turnover

    $500.6k traded against $146.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +10.0pp vs. 24h -7.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 53¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 21, 10:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 161.7h

    LOW
  • 16:19Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +10.0pp vs. 24h -7.0pp.

    HIGH

Price movement

-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

updated 16:19:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 16:19:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the cricket match between Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians scheduled for May 14 2026 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 16:19:18 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, +10.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$500.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $501.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $146.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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