Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins the toss?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$7.84
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 180.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at 2d ago (to 57¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +4.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the pre-match coin toss for the cricket match between Rajasthan Royals and Gujarat Titans scheduled for 2026-05-09 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to the official coin toss result (the team recorded as having won the toss) as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. If an official toss winner is recorded, the market will resolve based on that result even if the match is subsequently delayed, relocated, abandoned, or no ball is bowled. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open and resolve according to the toss result for the listed fixture when it is eventually played. If the fixture is permanently canceled, forfeited before any toss is conducted, or otherwise completed without an official toss winner being recorded, the market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins the toss?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 21:25:41 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$7.84 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $32.29. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
