Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3?
Probability
66¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+9.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$263.70
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 66¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 68.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: espncricinfo.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 24, 06:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 136.7h
- 13:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+9.0pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.
Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at Jun 15, 03:00 UTC (to 79¢).
Show top 8 of 72 hourly moves
- Jun 17, 08:00 UTC · -25.5pp → 54¢
- Jun 17, 06:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 54¢
- Jun 17, 05:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 54¢
- Jun 17, 04:00 UTC · -26.5pp → 53¢
- Jun 15, 23:00 UTC · -26.0pp → 53¢
- Jun 15, 04:00 UTC · +28.5pp → 79¢
- Jun 15, 03:00 UTC · +28.5pp → 79¢
- Jun 14, 02:00 UTC · +28.0pp → 78¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to whether play in the Test match between England and New Zealand in Test Series England vs. New Zealand reaches Day 3 under the competition's official playing conditions. This market resolves according to the finalized match status and the officially recorded progression of play as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The market will resolve Yes if play officially begins on Day 3. The market will resolve No if the match is completed, abandoned, canceled, or otherwise concludes under the playing conditions before any play begins on Day 3. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
crint-Reason
Polymarket cricket-international slugs use the crint- prefix; route them to Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3?"?
As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:19:22 GMT, YES is priced at 66% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +16.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 24, 2026 (2026-06-24T06:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $95.96. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $263.70. Spread between best bid and best ask: 68.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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