GeopoliticsExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia

Probability

91¢

1h

-6.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$19.0K

Liquidity

$8.9K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 10, 2026, 17:00May 11, 2026, 07:26
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-11T07-26Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.1× turnover

    $19.0k traded against $8.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 8.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 162.1h

    LOW
  • 07:26Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 91¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the cricket match between Hong Kong, China and Malaysia scheduled for May 11 2026 in T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

china

Reason

Question text contains "china" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia"?

As of Mon, 11 May 2026 07:26:35 GMT, YES is priced at 91% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -6.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T01:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$19.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $19.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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