T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu - Team Top Batter Vanuatu Winner
Probability
1¢
1h
-49.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$50.00
Liquidity
$34.59
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $35 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 18, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 160.1h
- 04:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to which team's player records the highest individual run total in the cricket match between Samoa and Vanuatu scheduled for 2026-05-11 in T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Samoa will be considered correct if the highest individual score in the match is recorded exclusively by a player from Samoa. The outcome corresponding to Vanuatu will be considered correct if the highest individual score is recorded exclusively by a player from Vanuatu. If the highest individual score is shared by at least one player from each team, the market will resolve to Draw. The market will resolve according to which team's player records the highest individual run total regardless of if the match is not competed (e.g. Due to weather conditions). DLS/DRS adjustments and any other on-field rulings affecting batting statistics are treated as ordinary data. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without official batting statistics being recorded, the market will resolve Draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and official statistics are available.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu - Team Top Batter Vanuatu Winner"?
As of Tue, 12 May 2026 04:23:51 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -49.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T20:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$50.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $50.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $34.59. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
