SportsExpires Jun 4, 2026
Creator

Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$22.2K

Liquidity

$79.8K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 3, 2026, 23:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 10:32 UTC
updated 10:32:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T10-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

price pinned not settled

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://hltv.org

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 0¢ current price

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.5h

    HIGH
  • 10:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 10:32:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 10:32:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between CHAOS and MANA eSports in the United21 Group D, initially scheduled for June 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "CHAOS" if CHAOS win the match against MANA eSports. This market will resolve to "MANA eSports" if MANA eSports win the match against CHAOS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

counter-strike

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:32:13 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$22.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $22.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $79.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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