SportsExpires Jun 18, 2026
Creator

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner

Probability

100¢

1h

+49.5pp

24h

+29.4pp

24h Vol

$829.8K

Liquidity

$1.3M

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

78% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    78% source confidence on this opportunity row.

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    65% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
56
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$106k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$1.3m
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelsemantic_risk_kernel+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 18, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
hltv.org
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Jun 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
Jun 15, 2026, 22:00 UTCJun 18, 2026, 19:31 UTC
updated 19:31:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-18T19-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 29pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +49.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 29.4pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

oracle review
Trust transition

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://hltv.org

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 21:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1.5h

    HIGH
  • 19:31Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 29.4pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 19:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+29.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 19:00 (to 90¢).

updated 19:31:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:31:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventCounter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between FURIA and 9z in the IEM Cologne Major Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 18 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win Map 2 against 9z. This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win Map 2 against FURIA. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

counter-strike

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner"?

As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 19:31:58 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +29.4pp in the last 24 hours, +49.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 18, 2026 (2026-06-18T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$829.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $829.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3M. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket