Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-70.5pp
24h Vol
$33.4K
Liquidity
$235.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 70pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $33.4k traded against $235.8k of visible liquidity (0.14× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:15Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 2.1h
- 02:07SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
-70.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
9- 20¢+1.0
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $5.3M
- 77¢0.0
Thunder vs. Lakers
Sports · Vol $2.9M
- 100¢+50.4
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 56¢+18.0
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.2M
- 46¢-3.5
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
Sports · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between Imperial and Yawara Esports in the CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Imperial" if Imperial win Map 1 against Yawara Esports. This market will resolve to "Yawara Esports" if Yawara Esports win Map 1 against Imperial. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
counter-strikeReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner"?
As of Sun, 10 May 2026 02:07:30 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -70.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T04:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$33.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $33.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $235.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
