Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffs
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$67.64
Liquidity
$387.50
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 33h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 33 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 32.5h
- 06:27SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between MARKandLARRY and Ground Zero in the ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 29 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MARKandLARRY" if MARKandLARRY win the match against Ground Zero. This market will resolve to "Ground Zero" if Ground Zero win the match against MARKandLARRY. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.