Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C
Probability
27¢
1h
+25.5pp
24h
-23.9pp
24h Vol
$4.6K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (34.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 24pp over 24h
Now 27¢; +25.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 34.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (34.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://hltv.org
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Expired, unresolved
Orrery verification task Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:58SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 11h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-23.9pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.
Biggest hourly move: -50.9pp at 07:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 11:00 · -48.4pp → 2¢
- 09:00 · -48.9pp → 1¢
- 07:00 · -50.9pp → 0¢
- 05:00 · -49.5pp → 2¢
- 04:00 · -49.5pp → 2¢
- 02:00 · -49.0pp → 2¢
- 00:00 · -48.0pp → 3¢
- 23:00 · -48.4pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 10¢+1.6
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $9.1M
- 0¢+0.1
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $7.7M
- 0¢-0.1
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $7.4M
- 1¢+0.1
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $5.5M
- 1¢-0.2
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $4.5M
- 0¢+0.1
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $4.0M
Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between MIBR Academy and DFX Peek in the Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C, initially scheduled for June 15 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR Academy" if MIBR Academy win the match against DFX Peek. This market will resolve to "DFX Peek" if DFX Peek win the match against MIBR Academy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
counter-strikeReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C"?
As of Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:58:48 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -23.9pp in the last 24 hours, +25.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 16, 2026 (2026-06-16T03:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 34.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.