SportsExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner

Probability

76¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$489.74

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
hltv.org
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 11:00May 6, 2026, 15:29
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T15-29Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 76¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 131.0h

    LOW
  • 15:29Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 2d ago (to 76¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · +3.5pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +28.5pp → 76¢
  • 2d ago · +26.5pp → 77¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCounter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and Passion UA in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Passion UA. This market will resolve to "Passion UA" if Passion UA win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 15:29:45 GMT, YES is priced at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T02:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $489.74. Spread between best bid and best ask: 12.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket