SportsExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

Probability

72¢

1h

+26.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$290.6K

Liquidity

$19.1K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
hltv.org
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 11, 2026, 19:00May 12, 2026, 13:23
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-12T13-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 15.2× turnover

    $290.6k traded against $19.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:20Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.9h

    HIGH
  • 13:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

2
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCounter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between PARIVISION and G2 in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win Map 2 against G2. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win Map 2 against PARIVISION. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

counter-strike

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner"?

As of Tue, 12 May 2026 13:24:01 GMT, YES is priced at 72% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +26.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T17:20:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$290.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $290.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket