Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$20.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $20.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://hltv.org
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 96.8h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 11:00 (to 50¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 20:00 · +4.0pp → 50¢
- 18:00 · +3.0pp → 50¢
- 16:00 · +3.0pp → 50¢
- 12:00 · +3.5pp → 49¢
- 11:00 · +4.5pp → 50¢
- 10:00 · +3.5pp → 49¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
13- 51¢+2.5
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs largadosypelados (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs
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Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
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Map Handicap: TdP (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5)
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Games Total: O/U 2.5
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Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner
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Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner
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- 100¢+83.5
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- 100¢+51.4
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Turma do Pagode and largadosypelados in the StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 28 at 2:00PM ET. This market is decided solely by the total number of rounds played within Map 1 of this match (the combined round score of both teams on that single map), and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Over" if the combined number of rounds played by both teams on Map 1, including any overtime, is greater than 21.5. This market will resolve to "Under" if the combined number of rounds played is less than 21.5. If the combined number of rounds played is exactly 21.5, this market will resolve 50-50. Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to "Over" or "Under". If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round total regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5"?
As of Fri, 24 Jul 2026 23:14:22 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 29, 2026 (2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $20.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.