Counter-Strike: Ursa vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D
Probability
50¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 10, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 10, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification brief
officially resolvedThe market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://hltv.org
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Counter-Strike: Ursa vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Counter-Strike: Ursa vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Elimination match between Ursa and megoshort in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D, initially scheduled for April 10 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ursa" if Ursa win the match against megoshort. This market will resolve to "megoshort" if megoshort win the match against Ursa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
counter-strikeReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: Ursa vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:57:15 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 10, 2026 (2026-04-10T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $17.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.