Dogecoin Up or Down on June 2?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-83.5pp
24h Vol
$897.48
Liquidity
$143.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 83pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:58SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 2h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-83.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for DOGE/USDT Jun 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for DOGE/USDT Jun 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGE/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
dogecoinReason
Question text contains "dogecoin" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dogecoin Up or Down on June 2?"?
As of Tue, 02 Jun 2026 17:58:08 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -83.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$897.48 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $143.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.