PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 26, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Probability

18¢

1h

-4.0pp

24h

-12.0pp

24h Vol

$69.01

Liquidity

$817.35

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
19¢
May 16, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 20:33 UTC
updated 20:33:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T20-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 12pp over 24h

    Now 18¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 23¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 26, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 211.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-12.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.

updated 20:33:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 20:33:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDonald Trump # Truth Social posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 20:33:34 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -12.0pp in the last 24 hours, -4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$69.01 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $124.96. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $817.35. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket