Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs BALU - Game 1 Winner
Probability
90¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.79
Liquidity
$1.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 02:44SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 13h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LGD Gaming and BALU in the Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 31 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against BALU. This market will resolve to "BALU" if BALU win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs BALU - Game 1 Winner"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:44:29 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$6.79 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.79. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.