SportsExpires May 6, 2026
Creator

Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner

Probability

0¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

-49.6pp

24h Vol

$9.2K

Liquidity

$19.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
dotabuff.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 20:00May 6, 2026, 20:40
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T20-40Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 50pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:20Resolve

    Market resolves in 1.7h

    HIGH
  • 20:40Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h.

    LOW

Price movement

-49.6pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between MODUS and Team Nemesis in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for May 6 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MODUS" if MODUS win Game 2 against Team Nemesis. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win Game 2 against MODUS. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

dota 2

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "dota 2" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:40:18 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -49.6pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T22:20:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$9.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket