SportsExpires Jun 3, 2026Closed
Creator

Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+50.0pp

24h Vol

$5.3K

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved YES

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED YES

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 3, 2026
UMA status
resolved
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 3, 2026 — dispute window active.

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
Jun 3, 2026, 06:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 06:00 UTC
updated 11:15:25 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T11-15Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 50pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 5286.0× turnover

    $5.3k traded against $0 of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved
Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.dotabuff.com

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 11:15Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 23:15Scheduled resolution

    Market resolved 12h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+50.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 11:15:25 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 11:15:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Rostik999 Club and Stariy Bog Club in the Winline Star Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 3 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Rostik999 Club" if Rostik999 Club win the match against Stariy Bog Club. This market will resolve to "Stariy Bog Club" if Stariy Bog Club win the match against Rostik999 Club. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

dota 2

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "dota 2" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:15:25 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +50.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 3, 2026 (2026-06-03T23:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.