SportsExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$130.5K

Liquidity

$15.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
dotabuff.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
  • Market expires May 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 30, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 31, 2026, 01:53 UTC
updated 01:53:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-31T01-53Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 8.7× turnover

    $130.5k traded against $15.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 01:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 9h ago; UMA dispute open

    HIGH

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 01:53:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 01:53:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDota 2: unknow vs BALU (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Open Qualifier Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Dota 2 3rd Place match between unknow and BALU in the Esports World Cup Western Europe Open Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 30 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "unknow" if unknow win Game 2 against BALU. This market will resolve to "BALU" if BALU win Game 2 against unknow. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner"?

As of Sun, 31 May 2026 01:53:43 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$130.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $130.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $15.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket