SportsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Probability

36¢

1h

+4.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$57.7K

Liquidity

$23.5K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 4h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
dotabuff.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
45¢
May 14, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 10:19 UTC
updated 10:19:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T10-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover

    $57.7k traded against $23.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 4h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $23.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.7h

    HIGH
  • 10:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.

updated 10:19:30 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

2
updated 10:19:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Vici Gaming and Team Falcons in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 15 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win Game 1 against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Vici Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

dota 2

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "dota 2" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 10:19:30 GMT, YES is priced at 36% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$57.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $57.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $23.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket