Total Kills Over/Under 83.5 in Game 2?
Probability
90¢
1h
-9.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$268.50
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:48SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 15:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 2h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming match between Yellow Submarine and 1win in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for May 6 at 5:00AM ET: This market is about the total kills in Game 2. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 2 is 84 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under". If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In Dota 2, a "kill" for markets like team total kills, kill handicap, and interval kills is counted when an enemy hero dies and the game awards a hero kill event to the opposing team's score, which is the number shown on the in-game scoreboard and tracked in scoreboard feeds as team kills. In practical terms, this includes any enemy hero death that increments a team's kill score, regardless of who got the last hit, including situations where the victim dies to creeps, a tower, or neutrals as long as the kill is still credited to the enemy team. It does not include denies, such as killing your own allied units, and it also does not include building or objective destructions like towers, barracks, or Roshan, since those are tracked separately from kills. Assists also do not count as kills, because they are recorded as a separate player stat and multiple players can assist on a single kill.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Total Kills Over/Under 83.5 in Game 2?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:48:43 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -9.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.dotabuff.com.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.dotabuff.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $268.50. Spread between best bid and best ask: 20.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.