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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 24, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-33.5pp

24h Vol

$733.2K

Liquidity

$347.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-8.5pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:12
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 18:12Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:12Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -15.4pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -17.4pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Resolve

    Market resolved 2h ago

    HIGH
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -18.1pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -17.6pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -19.9pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -20.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -19.9pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -19.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -16.0pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 32.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 33.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 33.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 32.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 32.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 31.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 24, 2026
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmusk
UMA status
proposed
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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