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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 28, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-9.9pp

24h Vol

$161.2K

Liquidity

$65.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.4× turnover

    $161.2k traded against $65.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 72.1h

    LOW
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 8.1pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.3pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.3pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).