OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Probability

14¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$10.8K

Liquidity

$32.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 140.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: +34.0pp at 1d ago (to 49¢).

Show all 9 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 00:00 · +3.0pp → 18¢
  • 22:00 · +3.0pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +34.0pp → 49¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 16¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventElon Musk # tweets April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
@elonmuskSocial media post
x.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket