TechMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 10, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+9.5pp

24h Vol

$4.9K

Liquidity

$36.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

70% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Paper governor not run here

This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    70% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Paper governor not run heresource

    This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
53
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$3k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$36k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpaper_governor_policy+2
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
14¢
Jun 30, 2026, 05:00 UTCJul 3, 2026, 20:21 UTC
updated 20:21:42 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-03T20-21Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 10pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 9.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary tracker / counter and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary tracker / counter and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary tracker / counter and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 10, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 163.6h

    LOW
  • 20:21Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 9.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+9.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -19.9pp at Jul 2, 17:00 UTC (to 4¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 20:00 · +11.5pp → 14¢
  • 18:00 · +10.5pp → 13¢
  • 16:00 · +4.3pp → 7¢
  • 15:00 · +3.1pp → 6¢
  • Jul 2, 17:00 UTC · -19.9pp → 4¢
updated 20:21:42 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 20:21:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventElon Musk # tweets July 3 - July 10, 2026?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 3 12:00 PM ET to July 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?"?

As of Fri, 03 Jul 2026 20:21:42 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 10, 2026 (2026-07-10T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $36.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket