Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 168h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 168.3h
- 16:14SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 168h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for May 2 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Fulham FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.premierleague.com/News consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).