Jamie Gittens: Anytime Goalscorer
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.9pp
24h
-47.9pp
24h Vol
$142.50
Liquidity
$293.16
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 48pp over 24h
Now 2¢; +0.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 35h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $293 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 35 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 19, 19:15 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 35.1h
- 08:08SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 35h.
Price movement
-47.9pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Premier League game between Chelsea FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC, scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jamie Gittens is credited with a goal in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
premier leagueReason
EPL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Jamie Gittens: Anytime Goalscorer"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:08:33 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -47.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T19:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.premierleague.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$142.50 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $142.50. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $293.16. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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