SportsExpires May 9, 2026
Creator

Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)

Probability

4¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-6.8pp

24h Vol

$45.89

Liquidity

$546.26

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
premierleague.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.3pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 10:00May 4, 2026, 09:24
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 124.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-6.8pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: -41.0pp at 3d ago (to 9¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -40.3pp → 4¢
  • 08:00 · -5.3pp → 4¢
  • 06:00 · -5.1pp → 4¢
  • 05:00 · -5.1pp → 4¢
  • 03:00 · -4.7pp → 4¢
  • 02:00 · -5.4pp → 4¢
  • 3d ago · +34.5pp → 44¢
  • 3d ago · -41.0pp → 9¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC - More Markets
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for May 9 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Sunderland AFC" if Sunderland AFC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Manchester United FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

8 wallets
Open on Polymarket