Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3?
Probability
75¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-13.5pp
24h Vol
$530.36
Liquidity
$17.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 14pp over 24h
Now 75¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 80¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 131.7h
Price movement
-12.5pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.