Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?
Probability
59¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$28.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 18h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 59¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 18h.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 18 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 18.1h
- 21:52SignalMEDIUM
Momentum up
Probability moved up 8.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 21:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 18h.
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
ethereumReason
Question text contains "ethereum" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 21:52:53 GMT, YES is priced at 59% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
