Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$393.34
Liquidity
$750.15
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 72¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 68h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $750 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 68h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 68 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 68.1h
- 19:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 68h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.
Biggest hourly move: +18.5pp at 03:00 (to 69¢).
Show all 9 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -4.5pp → 72¢
- 17:00 · -4.5pp → 72¢
- 16:00 · -4.0pp → 72¢
- 15:00 · -7.5pp → 69¢
- 13:00 · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 12:00 · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 10:00 · +3.5pp → 69¢
- 05:00 · +3.0pp → 69¢
- 03:00 · +18.5pp → 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for April 28 at 12:00PM ET: If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If the Hapoel Tel Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel Aviv". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.