SportsExpires May 1, 2026
Creator

Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv

Probability

66¢

1h

-8.0pp

24h

-6.0pp

24h Vol

$30.2K

Liquidity

$4.3K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
euroleaguebasketball.net
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 15:00May 1, 2026, 19:29
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 66¢; -8.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 7.0× turnover

    $30.2k traded against $4.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 19:29Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 18:45Resolve

    Market resolved 1h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

-6.0pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.

Biggest hourly move: +24.5pp at 3d ago (to 75¢).

Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · +22.5pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · +22.5pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 74¢
  • 1d ago · +22.5pp → 73¢
  • 3d ago · +24.5pp → 75¢

Trade flow

  • 19:25Trade

    Vigilant-Environment · BUY REAL MADRID $2.4K

    @ 65¢

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

2
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for May 1 at 2:45PM ET: If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If the Hapoel Tel Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel Aviv". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket