Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
0¢
1h
-2.1pp
24h
-15.7pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$2.5K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-47.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -2.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 142.4h
Price movement
-15.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -46.0pp at 22:07 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- 22:07 · -46.0pp → 0¢
- 05:00 · -43.6pp → 6¢
- 03:00 · -43.7pp → 6¢
- 02:00 · -43.6pp → 6¢
- 00:00 · -43.6pp → 6¢
- 23:00 · -43.6pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -44.3pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -44.9pp → 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 1, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 8, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Alerts
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