SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

Probability

14¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+6.0pp

24h Vol

$1.8K

Liquidity

$1.1K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-33.5pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 21:00May 2, 2026, 20:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 144.2h

    LOW

Price movement

+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -42.0pp at 1d ago (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · -41.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -41.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -40.0pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -40.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -42.0pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -39.0pp → 11¢
  • 2d ago · -38.5pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · -38.0pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMiami Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 1, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 8, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket