SportsExpires Jun 6, 2026
Creator

Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5)

Probability

8¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-5.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$53.12

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
fifa.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-16.5pp 7d
1007550250
9¢
May 28, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 14:19 UTC
updated 14:19:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T14-19Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 8¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 51h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 11.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 51 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: official statistics

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5) State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5) State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 6, 17:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 50.7h

    HIGH
  • 14:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 51h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.

Biggest hourly move: -39.0pp at 20:00 (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • 14:00 · -38.0pp → 9¢
  • 12:00 · -38.5pp → 8¢
  • 10:00 · -38.0pp → 8¢
  • 07:00 · -39.0pp → 9¢
  • 05:00 · -39.0pp → 8¢
  • 00:00 · -39.0pp → 8¢
  • 20:00 · -39.0pp → 8¢
  • 18:00 · -38.5pp → 9¢
updated 14:19:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:19:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGibraltar vs. Cayman Islands - More Markets
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cayman Islands" if Cayman Islands win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Gibraltar". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

first 90 minutes

Reason

Football resolution phrase — match outcome at end of regulation.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5)"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 14:19:49 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -16.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 6, 2026 (2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.fifa.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $53.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket