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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026

Will Republic of Ireland vs. Grenada end in a draw?

Probability

36¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$203.75

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 36¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 507h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 53.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 507.0h

    LOW
  • 12:59Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 507h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 16, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.fifa.comNews consensus
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (53.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.