Spread: Grenada (-2.5)
Probability
12¢
1h
-2.6pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$182.65
Liquidity
$226.80
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -2.6pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 23.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 412.0h
- 11:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +43.5pp at 13:00 (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 09:00 · +12.4pp → 19¢
- 07:00 · +12.4pp → 19¢
- 06:00 · +12.4pp → 19¢
- 05:00 · +12.4pp → 19¢
- 17:00 · +13.9pp → 20¢
- 15:00 · +13.7pp → 20¢
- 14:00 · +13.7pp → 20¢
- 13:00 · +43.5pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for May 16 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Grenada" if Grenada win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Republic of Ireland". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (23.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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