Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)
Probability
6¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$34.9K
Liquidity
$28.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 5h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 5h.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 5 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification brief
live to resolution sensitiveThe market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 5.1h
- 10:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5h.
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -42.7pp at 18:00 (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 61 hourly moves
- 04:00 · -42.0pp → 7¢
- 18:00 · -42.7pp → 6¢
- 17:00 · -39.2pp → 6¢
- 15:00 · -39.2pp → 6¢
- 14:00 · -39.8pp → 6¢
- 11:00 · -38.3pp → 6¢
- Jun 3, 09:00 UTC · -37.8pp → 6¢
- Jun 3, 08:00 UTC · -37.3pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 4 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northern Ireland" if Northern Ireland win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Guinea". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
first 90 minutesReason
Football resolution phrase — match outcome at end of regulation.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:56:13 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and -9.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.fifa.com.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$34.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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