Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target
Probability
90¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+38.9pp
24h Vol
$30.00
Liquidity
$447.87
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
80% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
80% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 39pp over 24h
Now 90¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:57SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 8h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+38.9pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Biggest hourly move: +38.9pp at 03:00 (to 90¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +38.9pp → 90¢
- 02:00 · +38.4pp → 90¢
- 01:00 · +37.9pp → 90¢
- 20:00 · -30.5pp → 20¢
- 18:00 · -33.5pp → 17¢
- 08:00 · -32.5pp → 18¢
- 07:00 · -31.5pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and Croatia, scheduled for June 17 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jude Bellingham records more than 1.5 shots on target within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Jude Bellingham records 1.5 shots on target or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots on target are counted only if credited to Jude Bellingham in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Jude Bellingham is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fifa world cupReason
FIFA World Cup markets are Sports; country-name geopolitics rules should not win this phrasing.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target"?
As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:57:26 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +38.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026 (2026-06-17T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$30.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $30.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $447.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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