Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 1B in Q1?

1. 1

   Down 9pp over 24h

   Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 83h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alphabet, in its official company earnings materials for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, reports that the Gemini App’s Monthly Active Users reached or exceeded the listed amount at any point. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. Only reports of the specified metric which explicitly indicate that the Gemini app’s monthly active users reached or exceeded the listed amount will qualify. For example, reports that the Gemini app’s monthly active users were “around” 800 million would not be sufficient to resolve a market for above 800 million monthly active users to “Yes”. The resolution source for this market is Alphabet's official company earnings materials for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.