Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-46.0pp
24h Vol
$10.4K
Liquidity
$9.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 0¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.3pp
to 0¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 1¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.8pp
to 4¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 4¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 4¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 10¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 34¢
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 15h ago
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).