Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on April 25?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.9pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$2.5K
Liquidity
$59.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 4
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 17:13SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 100¢
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 5h ago
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- wunderground.comSource not classifiedwunderground.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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