KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos
Probability
53¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+11.0pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$42.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalMomentum / follow-through
71% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewPaper governor not run here
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Momentum / follow-throughclear
71% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 53¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 11.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 48¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.koreabaseball.com/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 23, 09:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 171.8h
- 05:44SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 11.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+11.0pp over the last 24h, now 53¢.
Biggest hourly move: +17.5pp at Jul 14, 07:00 UTC (to 51¢).
Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +16.5pp → 50¢
- 14:00 · +17.0pp → 50¢
- Jul 15, 02:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 50¢
- Jul 14, 21:00 UTC · +17.5pp → 50¢
- Jul 14, 09:00 UTC · +17.5pp → 51¢
- Jul 14, 07:00 UTC · +17.5pp → 51¢
- Jul 13, 04:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 33¢
- Jul 13, 03:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This is a market on the KBO baseball game between Doosan Bears and NC Dinos, scheduled for July 16 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Doosan Bears" if the Doosan Bears win the game. This market will resolve to "NC Dinos" if the NC Dinos win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the KBO. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos"?
As of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:44:31 GMT, YES is priced at 53% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +11.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 23, 2026 (2026-07-23T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.koreabaseball.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.koreabaseball.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $42.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.