KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes
Probability
67¢
1h
-5.5pp
24h
+13.5pp
24h Vol
$5.5K
Liquidity
$134.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalDivergence / timeline check
81% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewPaper governor not run here
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Divergence / timeline checkclear
81% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 67¢; -5.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $5.5k traded against $134.1k of visible liquidity (0.04× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Divergence observation firing
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -5.5pp vs. 24h +13.5pp.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 62¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.koreabaseball.com/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 19, 09:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 166.9h
- 10:36SignalHIGH
Short-term vs. trend divergence
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -5.5pp vs. 24h +13.5pp.
Price movement
+13.5pp over the last 24h, now 67¢.
Biggest hourly move: +42.0pp at 14:00 (to 70¢).
Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
- 10:00 · +32.0pp → 74¢
- 07:00 · +34.5pp → 71¢
- 05:00 · +35.0pp → 71¢
- 04:00 · +32.0pp → 70¢
- 00:00 · +33.0pp → 70¢
- 17:00 · +41.0pp → 69¢
- 16:00 · +41.5pp → 69¢
- 14:00 · +42.0pp → 70¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market on the KBO baseball game between LG Twins and Kiwoom Heroes, scheduled for August 12 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "LG Twins" if the LG Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Kiwoom Heroes" if the Kiwoom Heroes win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the KBO. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
twinsReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "twins" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes"?
As of Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:36:06 GMT, YES is priced at 67% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +13.5pp in the last 24 hours, -5.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 19, 2026 (2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.koreabaseball.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.koreabaseball.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $134.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.