SportsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos

Probability

86¢

1h

-3.5pp

24h

+33.5pp

24h Vol

$10.3K

Liquidity

$7.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
koreabaseball.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 14:00May 8, 2026, 12:32
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T12-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 34pp over 24h

    Now 86¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 8.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 165.0h

    LOW
  • 12:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+33.5pp over the last 24h, now 86¢.

Biggest hourly move: +47.5pp at 12:32 (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
  • 12:32 · +47.5pp → 99¢
  • 11:00 · +39.0pp → 91¢
  • 10:00 · +4.5pp → 56¢
  • 09:00 · +4.5pp → 56¢
  • 07:00 · +3.0pp → 55¢
  • 06:00 · +3.0pp → 55¢
  • 05:00 · +3.5pp → 55¢
  • 03:00 · +3.0pp → 55¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a market on the KBO baseball game between Samsung Lions and NC Dinos, scheduled for May 8 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Samsung Lions" if the Samsung Lions win the game. This market will resolve to "NC Dinos" if the NC Dinos win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the KBO. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

lions

Reason

Question text contains "lions" — matched the Sports keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 12:32:48 GMT, YES is priced at 86% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +33.5pp in the last 24 hours, -3.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.koreabaseball.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.koreabaseball.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$10.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket